HITLER'S STRENGTH NOW ON WANE, DECLARES FAY

VON PAPEN GOVERNMENT MAY LAST THREE MONTHS LONGER

"The decline in the vote to Hitler's National Socialists is the most significant thing shown by the German national elections last Sunday," said S. B. Fay '96, professor of History, in an interview yesterday. "Since the vote for his party has declined from 37 per cent to 33 per cent of the total, Hitler has suffered his first major setback since the fall of 1930.

"Hitler is discredited in his claim made recently that he would have an absolute majority in the Reichstag. Many of his followers have lost faith in him since he has not made good his promises. Hitler is definitely checkmated and his National Socialist vote is likely to fall still further. A large proportion of former members of his party have voted for Hitler's two worst enemies, the Communists and the Nationalists.

"The second most important factor in the German election is the increase in the Communist vote. This is due largely to depressed economic conditions which are now beginning to improve and a further increase in the Communist ranks is not to be expected.

"The third important outcome of the elections is the rise in the Nationalist vote. This party under the leadership of Hugenberg has been supporting the Von Papen government and consequently an increase in their vote means an increase in popular approval of the present cabinet.

"The Von Papen government has a good chance to carry on for three months more, for in the probable event that the newly-elected Reichstag does not select a ministry of its own, it will be dissolved, with the result that new elections will be ordered for sometime in February. This will give Von Papen's economic program a chance to show results. Von Papen has already achieved some success in his programs, notably a decrease in unemployment, the dropping of reparations payments for the time being, and his success in pleasing nationalist sentiment by his demand for equality in armaments.

"A dictatorship or monarchy in Germany at the present time is extremely improbable, inasmuch as Von Hindenburg's influence would be strongly against proposals of this sort. What will probably happen is that both Von Hindenburg and Von Papen will present to the Reichstag when it meets in December a program of constitutional reform in a conservative direction. This program will probably provide for a conservative upper house to act as a check on the Reichstag acting in much the same way as the United States Senate or the English House of Lords. Other proposals may include raising the voting age from 20 to 25 and measures providing for a greater centralization of government.