This is the fifth in a series of articles, appearing in the Crimson, dealing with industrial and political events and their interpretation in terms of the stock market, which still remains the most effective baroeter of business. The crimson has been fortunate in securing the services of an astute observer of market fluctuations.
The Rides of Business
During the past week there has been little change in either the direction or velocity of the various business currents which afford a cross-sectional view of he recovery movement to date. Characteristic of the past several weeks, certain sections of industry readily respond to the continued lavish flow of Federal funds like the froth on a pitcher of near beer which fails, however, to have any real exhilirating effect. Until the heavy industries react in convincing fashion, which can only come from renewed business confidence, government spending will only produce evanescent results.
President Roosevelt's speech to the Bankers' Association had the mellifluous effect of a couple of whiskies and soda. The Domine assured his listeners "We shall stop spending when you start lending," and the congregation joined in the responsive reading, "we shall start lending when you stop spending." Appalled apparently by the universal belief that the administration is like a weather vane which voers to every zephyr from a brain truster, the President assured his audience that the Government "had hourly contact with every portion of the habitable globe." Such an OGPU should dispel all doubts that the fantastic gyrations of the Administration are the results of ignorance. On the whole, however, the speech had constructive implications from the long-term viewpoint, as the President is obviously passing from an idealistic to a realistic attitude.
On his way out the dapper, debonair Tugwell asserted that he was a real dirt farmer albeit the soil on his shoes came from an early morning stroll through his apple orchard and this week, Washington's No. 1 man, Richberg reveals he is a born conservative, dyed in the purple and to the manor bern. Meanwhile the sudden change fro m "End Poverty," to "End Prosperity," in Sinclair's slogan for California has resulted in a rebuff from Roosevelt which materially damages that picturesque purveyor of political panaceas' chances of election. An entertaining spectacle this, in all its ironic humor, but pertinent to this review only in hat it shows that the administration, sicklied o'er with the pale hue of approaching elections, is making a pathetic attempt to "Turn To the Right." Market students must always bear in mind that "inflation," now in a "potential" state, may at any time become "kinetic."
From the Croupier's Chair
In accordance with our expectations last week, the Dow, Jones average receded from the 96 level where they met with such stubborn resistance, to the upper fringes of the 92 level. The failure of the bulls to show a scoring punch while in a strategic position, gave the bears temporary possession of the ball. We do not believe that the downward movement has spent is force and would defer purchases until prices approach the 90 to 91 level, despite the probability of a moderate raliy. From the technical aspect the market is preparing for a ten-point movement from a mean level at 94, with its direction at the moment somewhat obscure the rails hold distinct possibilities if picked up on further reactions as do Johns Manville and American Radiator among the industrials.