Safran Sees Israeli Victory, Predicts Quick Egyptian Fall

"The battle going on right now in the Middle East will determine the outcome of the war," Nadav Safran, professor of Government, said last night. "I do not think that the Egyptians can hold out for another two days," he added.

Safran spoke at an open forum on the Mid-East held last night at Lowell Lecture Hall. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the war rather than to foster pro-Israeli sentiments.

"Israel was a status quo country, content with its position," he said. Safran said that the longer the stalemate continued, the better off Israel's position became. "The Arabs had run out of all their options except war," he said.

Avoid Future Attack

"The Israeli military aim is to conclusively defeat the Arabs so as to avoid any future attack of this sort," Safran said. He said that the Arab aim to obtain a definite foothold on the east bank, in the Sinai, was being forestalled. "The Arabs must reach the line of Passe in order to achieve victory," Safran said. "They will not be able to do so."

A Quick Peace

During the question and answer period that followed his talk, Safran stated that the U.S. position is to help achieve a quick peace, but a peace that will leave Israel with a bargaining position at least equal to their pre-war one.

If the war lasts for more than a couple of weeks, however, Safran says he feels that the U.S. will opt for a quick peace settlement even at the expense of Israel's position. "A smashing Israeli victory will probably result in Sadat's overthrow," Safran said. On the other hand a Phyrric victory for the Israelis may enhance Sadat's weak political standing. "He may come across as a brave and determined leader," Safran said.

The victory is not in doubt according to Safran; just the dimensions and consequences of it.

Last night's forum was sponsored by the H-R Hillel Society and the Democratic Socialist Party.