AROUND THE IVY LEAGUE: New Haven Site of Stretch Drive Drama

After the complete washout that was the Ivy title race last season, at least there’s an outside chance for some fireworks entering the final weekend of league play.

Sure, Penn still holds a comfortable lead and can either clinch the title with a sweep this weekend, a split and a Princeton loss, or a win at Jadwin Gym on Tuesday. But the prospect of the latter option is what has people excited.

Imagine the Quakers laying an egg in New Haven tomorrow night in front of a downright nasty Yale crowd, and the Tigers cleaning up the next night against the emotionally spent Bulldogs. Then, the same Penn team that had seemingly been scouting out first-round NCAA locations for about a month now would need to beat Princeton in Jadwin or else face the prospect of a neutral site do-or-die playoff game against a team that went 2-11 against non-conference competition.

All of a sudden, the “seeding watches” that have dominated most of the banter involving bored Ivy basketball fans would be halted momentarily to watch the league teeter on the brink of the play-in game.

And all it would take is one—and only one—Yale win to make March meaningful again.

With that, let’s get to this weekend’s action:

PENN (18-7, 10-1 IVY) AT YALE (15-12, 7-5)

It’s hard to believe that this contest won’t be televised, noting its implications for the Ivy title race, but since the YES Network and CN8 have combined to broadcast both of Saturday night’s key matchups, I won’t complain about this omission too much.

Though the final score might not reflect it, Yale jumped out to a 16-1 lead over Penn in the two teams’ first matchup. Had the Quakers not been playing in front of the friendly Palestra crowd, Penn might have never dug out of that hole. Especially since the Bulldogs are an entirely different team at home.

The one thing working in the Quakers’ favor is that this contest isn’t a trap game. Penn definitely isn’t overlooking Yale, and the Quakers get the Bulldogs first on the trip, rather than the always dangerous Saturday road contest.

Penn takes it by four.

PRINCETON (10-14, 8-3) AT BROWN (9-16, 5-7)

While the Tigers need help to claim the Ivy title, they also need to take care of business themselves against a pesky Bears team that has won three of its last five.

The key to the game, as it is in most league contests, will be three-point differentials—the difference between a team’s shooting percentage from behind the arc and its three-point percentage defense. Brown enters the game with a -0.56 differential, while Princeton boasts a +0.68 mark.

If the Tigers get going from long range, which hasn’t seemed to be much of a problem for them in league play, they could run away with this one. The final result won’t be that stark, but the Tigers should finish with a two possession cushion.

COLUMBIA (11-14, 4-8) AT DARTMOUTH (5-20, 3-9)

The loser of this one will likely end up in the league’s basement, which is a shame considering how both teams have turned it around during the second half of the Ivy season.

The Lions are just 1-4 on the road, and the huge collapse at home in the second half against Yale might have killed any momentum that Columbia had. Take Dartmouth in a squeaker.

PENN AT BROWN

This could very well be a trap game for the Quakers, but likely only if Penn already has the Ivy title sewn up.

The Quakers have very little depth right now, as the squad boasts Ivy sixth man of the year Brian Grandieri and a banged up Friedrich Ebede behind its excellent starting five. Penn coach Fran Dunphy has stood pat with playing seven (and with Ebede’s injury six) despite the tremendous fatigue that it brings upon his squad.

If the Quakers have clinched the outright league crown, take Brown and the points. But if there’s something left to play for, Penn will take it by six.

PRINCETON AT YALE

This one is also a Friday night-dependent pick.

There is no doubt in my mind that if the Tigers need this game, they’ll find a way to win it. Four years of watching Princeton dismantle Harvard’s hopes (as well as many other squads around the league) in heartbreaking fashion makes one never count the Tigers out in a must-have situation.

But if Penn gets past Yale, or Princeton falls to Brown, take the homestanding Bulldogs. If the Tigers need the win to force a meaningful game at Jadwin on Tuesday night, Princeton wins it by one.

CORNELL AT DARTMOUTH

Depending on how things shake out Friday evening, the Big Red could be battling for third place in the league, while the Big Green could be assured at least a share of last.

Dartmouth’s Michael Lang could have a “Brady Merchant” game on Senior Night to keep this one close, but since Cornell will likely have much more at stake, take the Big Red by seven.

—Staff writer Michael R. James can be reached at mrjames@fas.harvard.edu.