Fellow Plays Down Nuclear Proliferation Fears

The acquisition of nuclear weapons does not embolden weak countries, a Kennedy School Research Fellow told dozens at a brown-bag seminar yesterday.

T. Negeen Pegahi, a Political Science graduate student at the University of Chicago and a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, presented her dissertation work on the role of nuclear weapons in weak countries’ foreign policies.

“Acquisition can embolden in theory, but this effect will be very rare in practice,” Pegahi wrote in her presentation slideshow.

She used the comic book sailor Popeye as an analogy for the issues. Popeye is initially weak in comparison to his adversaries, but after eating spinach, he becomes bolder and can face off against his opponents.

Iran is Popeye and the United States is Popeye’s larger adversary Bluto, Pegahi said.

“We don’t like this story when we substitute nuclear weapons for spinach,” she said.

In the seminar, Pegahi focused on the case of Pakistan’s relations to India in recent years.

She concluded that Pakistan did not behave more boldly than one would expect based on the nation’s behavior before obtaining a nuclear arsenal.

“Nuclear weapons can’t be used for offensive purposes,” she said. “They’re strictly deterrent weapons.”

The presentation lasted less than an hour, but the question session afterwards took almost as long. Audience members raised detailed empirical challenges to her conclusions about the Pakistani case.

In presenting her dissertation conclusions thus far, Pegahi said she hoped that audience members’ questions and comments would help point out weaknesses in her arguments.

“This is a much more diverse audience than my home institution,” Pegahi said.

Still, the conclusion of Pegahi’s studies remains unchanged.

“Calm down about proliferation,” Pegahi said.

“That would basically be the bumper sticker version.”