Around The Ivies: Plot Twists Ahead

You know that inevitable scene in House where all the young doctors think their patient has Lupus? Or maybe you’d relate better with CSI, and that moment you know is coming 30 minutes in when they bring in a suspect. It’s never Lupus, and that first guy never did it.

That scene always seems so scripted, right? So fake. But it’s not. It’s probably the most realistic scene in the series. That scene is all around us, playing out every day.

Don’t believe me? Just look at where we are five games into the Ivy League season (you were wondering when we’d actually get to the football, weren’t you?).

If we were doctors, here is the evidence we’d have to make a diagnosis.

The League appears to have separated into two tiers. In the bottom half, Penn, Brown, Cornell and Columbia are a combined 3-17, with the only Ivy win among the group coming when Penn (1-4, 1-1 Ivy) beat Columbia (0-5, 0-2 Ivy). The Bears (2-3, 0-2 Ivy) will likely rise to the top of that bunch, with their two losses coming to Harvard by eight points and Princeton by 11. But the rest? Forget them.

The other four teams have presented piles of contradictory evidence that we as crime investigators would have to sort through to identify the best team. Here is each’s resume:

Yale (4-1, 1-1 Ivy) beat FBS-level Army, has scored 30 points in every game with the best rushing offense and passing offense in the game, and has an offensive line that has given up only five sacks.

As impressive as the Bulldogs have been, Dartmouth (4-1, 2-0) beat them in New Haven, 38-31, on Oct. 11 after beating Princeton at the end of last season. The Big Green also boast some of the league’s most dynamic individual players, with conference-leading returner Ryan McManus, everywhere-linebacker Will McNamara and electric quarterback Dalyn Williams.

Princeton (3-2, 2-0) has two losses, but both were on the road and out of conference. The Tigers are the only team with a top-three scoring offense and scoring defense thus far, and Harvard coach Tim Murphy said that’s for real. While Princeton has needed to rack up points  to win in years past, the Tigers are a balanced team with talent everywhere now. They’ve given up just 1.7 yards per rushing attempt.

Harvard’s (5-0, 2-0) defense has been flat-out dominant, giving up just over 10 points per game. But the Crimson has yet to play a team that currently has a winning record, so how much do we really know?

With so much conflicting evidence and so much missing evidence, we fall back on what we know, just like the doctors diagnosing lupus or the cops going after the guy who already has a rap sheet.

Harvard and Princeton shared the Ivy title last year, which was the biggest reason they were “1a” and “1b” in the preseason media poll. Five games in, there is no compelling reason to change that.

But as Dr. House knows, the easy, established answer is rarely the right one. That’s why we love sports, too. It starts out looking the same each year, but as we run more tests and gather more evidence, something unique emerges.

The truth will come out over the next five weeks, starting Saturday when Harvard travels to Princeton. But the full diagnosis might not be clear until the final week of the year. With Yale coming to Cambridge and Dartmouth playing the Tigers, the schedule sets up for as much drama as any primetime show on FOX.

Here are my predictions for the first full week of Ivy play.

CORNELL AT BROWN

Expect the Big Red’s charity tour to continue this week in Providence. And nobody needs it more than Brown. Just when it seemed like things could not get worse after losses to Harvard and Princeton, a squirrel caused a city blackout earlier this week. If the scoreboard was affected, we might not find out during this game between bottom-three offenses. Maybe the squirrel saw this matchup on the schedule and decided electrocution was a more exciting alternative.

Prediction: Brown 22, Cornell 9

HARVARD AT PRINCETON

After two dramatic wins by the Tigers, we’ll find out what type of trilogy this is on Saturday. Will we see the Return of the Jedi, with senior quarterback Conner Hempel returning from injury to seek revenge for the comeback win Princeton pulled off the last time these teams played in New Jersey? Or are the Crimson in for Alien 3, a bad couple hours during which the monsters win? Harvard’s lackluster offense over the last couple weeks does not inspire confidence, nor does the team’s lack of big game experience thus far, but I see the Crimson finding a way to finally top the Tigers.

Prediction: Harvard 38, Princeton 37

DARTMOUTH AT COLUMBIA

If anyone is capable of a hangover loss after winning at least four of its first five games for the first time since I was four years-old, it’s Darty. But against the Lions, I don’t see it happening. The Big Green will roll, and the unfortunate Daily Spectator writers will be sent back to the thesaurus for another synonym for inept. How about execrable? Oh, you used that in 2011?

Prediction: Dartmouth 35, Columbia 6

PENNSYLVANIA AT YALE

The Quakers’ eight-game losing streak was over after they topped Columbia last week. But another one is about to start. It’s too bad Penn fell apart before I could get an elaborate Pennthouse pun into Around the Ivies. Maybe I’ll have a good one revolving around Pennance by the time the Bulldogs score their 40th point Saturday. Maybe not.

Prediction: Yale 51, Penn 17

—Staff writer Jacob D.H. Feldman can be reached at jacob.feldman@thecrimson.com.