Oscar Predictions: There's an Equation For That

With Sunday night's 84th Annual Academy Awards fast approaching, you only have a few hours remaining to impress your friends with your prophetic abilities (and possibly win some bets) by predicting who will win which award. This year, consider paying attention to the predictions that Ben T. Zauzmer '15 has posted on his website, Ben's Oscar Forecast.

Zauzmer, a self-professed film buff, devised his own purely mathematical means of determining the future award winners. For each nominated film, his method relies on a tally of other award wins, Oscar nominations in other categories, and quantitative scores from websites like Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes. Incorporating data for Oscar nominations since 2001, Zauzmer used linear algebra to determine which factors have weighed into past wins. This process was "akin to finding a giant line of best fit," Zauzmer said.

Although there is no telling yet how successful Zauzmer's predictions will prove to be, they are pretty similar to those of Melena Ryzik, aka "the Carpetbagger," and New York Times's Oscar oracle. Like Ryzik, Zauzmer foresees "The Artist" sweeping the big awards this year, predicting wins for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor among other categories.

Can we credit Harvard with teaching Zauzmer the math skills to pull off a project like this? Apparently not. "I unfortunately didn't have time to fit math into my schedule this semester," Zauzmer said. It seems he found a way to work in math outside of the classroom, and in the process created something that you may benefit from placing a few bets on.