Lowell Lecturer Predicts Japan Will Withdraw From 1931 Naval Treaty

"Japan will probably withdraw from the London Naval Treaty of 1931 before this December," said Sir Frederick Whyte, K.C.S.I., L.L.D., Lowell lecturer last October, in an interview with the CRIMSON, "and this will lead to an extensive armament program in both England and America.

"Japan has been following a plan of aggression in the Far East, as is amply shown by her activities in Manchuria, which will undoubtedly lead to a great deal of trouble. Japan at present is demanding a navy of a strength equal to that of the United States or Great Britain.

"This demand of Japan's cannot possibly be agreed upon by the other two power for one main reason: that the amount of ocean to be patroiled by Japan is less than one-half that covered by the other two countries. The United States must have ships in both the Atlantic and the Pacific; England must control the eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean anyway, and must be able to take care of her possessions in the western hemisphere.

"At present Japan has built enough ships to make up the quota allowed her in the London treaty; the United States and England have not yet done so. Whatever happens in the next year, war will not be the outcome; my country and yours will see to that by building up their fleets. It may, however, lead to very bad conditions in Japan herself.

"If the Japanese program is not a success financially, the people of that country will object to and throw out of power their militaristic leaders. If financial trouble arises, it will mean the wreck of the Japanese state for some years.

"Another interesting phase of this conflict is the situation of Russia. Russia has made treaties of non-aggression with all the countries which surround her territory. She made proposals to Japan on much the same kind of a treaty, but Japan refused to have anything to do with Russia in a diplomatic way which means that Russia is not outside of the militaristic plans of Japan.

"England has had an ambassador in Russia for some years; the United States has recently exchanged representatives with Russia. This move on the part of these two countries shows that they fear Japan and respect the growing power of Russia. America's recognition acts as a long range warning to Japan to be very careful of what she does.

"In any squabble with Japan, Russia is almost sure to be included. China, on the other hand, is too small a factor to count. Russia's latest second five year plan will be a large element in this controversy; when it is completed, it will mean that Russia will be a nation capable of carrying on war on a large scale, for self-sufficiency in industrial output is a necessity for any country fighting an extensive campaign.

"Russia's independence, however, will not mean that she will declare war; it will mean that she is a power in the world to be reckoned with. Whatever Japan's next move will be, it will be sure to cause a great deal of disturbance among the nations of the world."

Sir Frederick, Parliamentary secretary to Winston Churchill before the war, King's Messenger during the war, President of the First Indian Senate for six years, political adviser to the Chinese Government for a time, and lecturer in the United States during the last few years, has a broad knowledge of the affairs of the world, and his opinions are respected in both England and America Last night he lectured at the University Club on "Democracy vs. Fascism, Hitlerism and Communism.