Improved Peace Treaties May Result at Lima, Says Haring

"Improving and coordinating the existing peace machinery by further implementing of the Buenos Aires treaties of 1936 will probably be the biggest accomplishment in the political field of the Pan-American conference at Lima," Clarence H. Haring '07, Clarence Woods Bliss Professor of Latin American History and Economics, said yesterday in an interview.

Predicting that plans for mutual defense of the Americas will get no farther than "pious expressions of good intentions," he said that the previously proposed "American League of Nations" will probably not be adopted. "The small states would only accept such a scheme on a basis of absolute equality of voting power, a plan to which the large states may never agree; this conflict is the real stumbling block," he explained.

Trade Barriers May Go Down

In the economic sphere, Professor Haring sees as possible accomplishments of the conference the reduction of existing trade barriers chiefly through elimination of import quotas, and a controlled exchange system.

Of the currently advocated Pan-American isolation from Europe, he said, "It's not very realistic. Many of the South American countries have a large European trade, notably Argentina, and are consequently opposed to isolation. Economic ties in the Americas may be considerably strengthened, but you can't expect another Zollverein."

Expropriations Small Barrier

A more closely knit economic system in the Western Hemisphere through investment of United States capital in South and Central America may be hindered to some extent by fear of direct or indirect expropriation of foreign property, Professor Haring believes, but thinks it is unlikely that many countries will follow Mexico's example in this matter.

Turning to the threat of totalitarian influence in South America, Professor Haring said, "I have a strong feeling that German and Italian propaganda may turn out to be a boomerang. It has certainly had little or no concrete result on trade, since the figures for 1937 show that neither Germany nor Italy increased its proportional share of South American trade over the previous year."

"In fact," he concluded, "there has been increasing solidarity in the Americas in recent years. This has resulted from the League of Nations' loss of prestige, our 'good neighbor' policy, and general opposition to the aggressive policies of the totalitarian states in Europe."