Kennedy Gaining in New Jersey But Newsmen Expect Close Race

Traditionally Republican New Jersey, a state with a strong Democratic governor and an almost even split in its state legislature, is considered a loss-up this year by most political observers. Many have noted increasing Democratic strength particularly in the industrial areas of North Jersey, but the big question is whether Kennedy can gain enough support by election day to overcome GOP power established by Eisenhower's two resounding victories.

The Eisenhower landslide in 1956 gave Republicans control of the State Legislature and most key state posts. But then New Jersey turned around and re-elected Democrat Robert B. Meyner for his second term as governor in 1957. Meyner has been rebuilding the Democratic party until it now has a U.S. senator, and is within one vote of capturing the state Senate. Kennedy must capitalize on his party's resurgence and shake loose some of the die hard Republican voters in order to become the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in New Jersey since 1944.

Clyde Leid, city editor of the Trentonian, believes that the state's underlying Republican strength stems from the tendency of New Jersey voters to turn out in large numbers only for national contests, and then to vote as they did in the last election. Leid added that since Eisenhower piled up a margin of 700,000 votes in 1956, Kennedy has a long, hard fight to win.

Hudson, Bergen Hold Key

The election will probably hinge on two of the state's most populous areas, industrial Hudson County that includes Jersey City and Bayonne, and suburban Bergen County that is one of the nation's highest per capita income sections. Bergen, long a Republican stronghold, went for Eisenhower by 170,000 votes in 1956. Carl Jellinghaus, assistant managing editor of the Bergen Evening Record, predicts that Bergen will deliver a 60,000 margin for Nixon on Tuesday. This is far less than 170,000, but Jellinghaus explains that any comparison with Eisenhower is "not fair."

Democrats, however, point to this drop in Republican estimates as a portent of things to come. Robert Caldwell, managing editor of the Bayonne Times in Hudson, thinks that his county will give Kennedy a 100,000 edge, enough to insure victory in the state. He reported that the dissident factions who have been picking at the remains of the old Hague Democratic machine in Jersey City have united behind the party and are successfully getting out the vote. Caldwell cites Hudson's 78 per cent Catholic population as an important factor in the county's support of Kennedy.

"Even the Republicans are saying it's Kennedy." Caldwell declared. He revealed that most of the voters have received Nixon coolly.

Newsmen in other areas of the state, however, discount the predictions of victory issued by their Northern colleagues. They claim that Democratic strength in Hudson and Mercer will be offset by the Republican vote in Bergen and Essex, a county that includes heavily-Negro Newark, and wealthy suburbia.

Allen Van Fossen, city editor of the Courier Post that serves Camden and the southern end of the state, and Ken Rhodes, political reporter for the Atlantic City Press, both agree that voters in their areas will stick pretty closely to former voting patterns. This, both men believe, will make the race very close.

As the campaign draws to a close, the New Jersey situation is very similar to that in most parts of the country. The general impression is that if Kennedy can roll up large majorities in Hudson and Mercer, cut down on Republican strength in Bergen and Essex, and hold his own in the less populous southern areas, he will win. If, however, most of the voters who went for Eisenhower the last two times decide not to switch, it will be Nixon. In any case, the vote will be close, with the margin of victory under 60,000 according to most estimates