India and China: III

India predicted last year that by now Chinese troops would be deep within the North-East Frontier Agency or already defeated by the IndianArmy. Neither has occurred.

Instead, China apparently intends to keep out of the NEFA so long as her own possession of Ladakh, with its military highway to Tibet, remains undisturbed by the Indians. Quite aside from the lateness of the season, it is extremely unlikely that the Indians will ever disturb China in Ladakh. Last year's fighting showed India the dangers of opposing China militarily. Before risking military action, she would have to compose her quarrel with Pakistan, a procedure which would probably cost her more territory in Kashmir than she would gain in Ladakh.

However threatening it seemed, effects of the Sino-India quarrel then have been comparatively minor. China has been confirmed in her possession of Ladakh. India has come to trust China, although not necessarily the Soviet Union, a little less than formerly, and the Western powers, although definitely not Pakistan, a little more. Life in the U.N. General Assembly is a little simpler for those diplomats who found Krishna Menon particularly offensive. But neither a major realignment of Indian policy nor a serious outburst of Chinese expansionism has occurred.