The West

THE WEST is solid Reagan country, the bedrock of his electoral victory four years ago. In 1980, Reagan won more than a hundred electoral votes by carrying every state: in the West except Hawaii. He looks likely to repeat this trick in 1984 and win states like Arizona, Oregon, Wyoming, and the big prize, California (45 electoral votes), against almost any Democratic candidate--especially Mondale. The only Democrat right now who could give him a lot of trouble is Cranston, but the California senator is struggling right now in the East and shows little sign of being able to last even until the primaries out west, most of which take place in May and June.

If he can last that long, though, Cranston could conceivably resuscitate his lagging candidacy in those primaries, especially in the California primary on June 5 which offers a prize of 306 delegates to the favorite son. Son too could Glenn, whose centrism better appeals to the heavy proportion of moderate-to-conservative voters in the sun belt states of Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada.

But no Democrat--and that includes frontrunner Mondale--can afford to write off California entirely, and it is certain the Democrats will go after Reagan, probably by emphasizing the nuclear issues championed by Cranston. Reagan could also be vulnerable on environmental issues there--as well as in some of the northwestern states whose populations have been rubbed the 3 wrong way by the policies of Reagan's first Secretary of the Interior, James B. Watt. Still, given the area's basic conservatism, the West is Reagan's to lose.

William S. Benjamin, Camille M. Ceasar, Michael F.P. Dorning, Peter R. Eccles, and Robert M. Neer contributed to the reporting of this story.