Duke's Night in the Sun

ONCE, Herodotus tell us, there was a rich ruler, Croesus, who had just about everything a man could want. One day he asked Solon, the world's wisest man, to tell him who was the happiest man in the world, expecting of course to hear "You, Sire." Instead, Solon mentioned that it is not good policy to eulogize before the end. Even as he was saying this, Croesus' enemies were laying the plans which brought about his eventual fall.

On the whole, Solon's is not bad advice for George Bush or the pundits who have already given him this election. While neither was looking, Mike Dukakis has been busy preparing for what may be the coup of the campaign. Barring any last minute glitches or changes of heart he will appear on a special 90 minute edition of ABC's Nightline tonight, alone. Bush refused ABC's offer to appear together with Dukakis. For Dukakis, who has come out of the second debate slipping fast in the polls, all of this could not have come at a better time.

The event will introduce a new twist to the campaign, a chance for Dukakis to enter the livingrooms of a huge number of American voters--about 20 percent of whom the polls say are still undecided--something he has not done since the Democratic convention last July. Dukakis's appearance tonight will give him the opportunity to do what he could not during the debates--engage in dialogue with the voter rather than reciting prepared phrases.

Nightline and its host Ted Koppel command a great deal of respect from the public. People trust Koppel to ask penetrating, frank questions that reflect their own concerns. Koppel is also well-known for his persistence, making sure that his guests do not get off the hook without answering his question or at least clearly showing that they want to avoid answering.

CLEARLY this is a gamble by Dukakis, partly made in desperation, and will be a danger-ridden adventure for him. In order to answer Koppel's questions, he may be forced to show his liberal, yes liberal, views on the issues. Ninety minutes with Koppel will give Dukakis little place to hide. If the public is as conservative as both Bush and Dukakis seem to think, this may not bode well.

It is one thing for your opponent to call you liberal; it is another to display your liberalism yourself. Whose constituency is larger remains to be seen, but after tonight it will be impossible for Dukakis to depend on support from those "Reagan Democrats" he hoped to lure back through deliberate vagueness on certain issues. So tonight's appearance can, if Dukakis doesn't exploit it properly, backfire, and may very well determine whether Dukakis will have to kiss his Presidential ambitions good-bye or be able to step back on a path to the White House.

But just in terms of exposure this represents a coup for Dukakis and makes the risk worthwhile. The 90 minutes Dukakis will have to himself is in itself worth millions of dollars; appearing on Nightline will provide him with an immense audience. Unlike political commercials, which voters tend to resent and ignore, the show's format will tend to make viewers more attentive and look more favorably upon both Dukakis and his message. The program will allow voters to see Dukakis at length and get a better sense of who he is--a widespread complaint has been that he is not very personable. This is no trivial matter; people prefer voting for someone they feel they know.

A big question after tonight is what George Bush's response will and should be. The simple fact that he declined ABC's offer already hurts him somewhat. He should, and will, wait for the reaction to Dukakis' performance. If Dukakis is seen as having botched things up, or as not having turned the tide, then Bush will be able to ignore the incident, do nothing, and ride his momentum to the White House.

If Dukakis performs well tonight, Bush may have no viable option besides submitting to a similar, though preferably shorter, appearance. Bush's "propensity to gaffe" should rule out a 90 minute one-on-one with any panel or news anchor. Appearing on a different network might allow Bush to save some face at the expense of ABC and Ted Koppel.

In short, if anything is evidently clear about Dukakis's appearance tonight, it is that the novelty, scope and timing of the event make it a critical make-or-break time for him. Barring any glitches or changes of heart Dukakis will appear tonight on Nightline; barring any glitches or changes of heart, though, he stands a good chance of losing the election. Tonight allows him to put precisely such a glitch in the plans of Bush, a modernday Croesus.