Candidates Shift Focus To South Carolina, Rest of Nation

Early tomorrow morning, a plane carrying John S. McCain will touch down in South Carolina, and the candidate who pulled off an astonishing double-digit victory in New Hampshire will try to do it all over again.

The Arizona senator won't rest on his laurels after outpacing the Republican field in the Granite State, but will instead begin days of town hall meetings in a state largely inhospitable to his moderate views. His rival, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, has fared better in recent polls in the Southern conservative state.

The Democratic candidates, Vice President Al Gore '69 and former Sen. Bill Bradley, have more than a month before their primaries, but they, too, show no signs of breaking rhythm.

Most analysts and campaign officials say that the Democratic and Republican parties will have their respective nominees within six weeks.

New Hampshire and Iowa--two small states with homogenous populations--have powerful status in election years.

Now, the race shifts to the national arena. Candidates--who talked about taxes in taxophobic New Hampshire and hog farming in agriculturally minded Iowa--will now talk about national defense, about leadership and about governmental reform.

But the balancing act between local and national agendas won't end until Feb. 19, when South Carolina holds its party primary.

"South Carolina has consistently voted for Republicans in recent presidential elections and a win here portends good things for the winner in other primary states," says Bruce Ransom, a political scientist at Clemson University.

In previous primaries, a significant minority of cultural conservatives has ensured that the winning candidates trumpeted cultural conservative causes.

Bush has the support of the state establishment in South Carolina.

"There is a sizable number of social and religious conservatives who tend to vote Republican," Ransom writes in an e-mail message.

Turnout is important--and voters seem to be very interested in electoral politics this year.

"Primary voters are taking their roles very seriously, with over 50 percent saying they are paying more attention to the election this year than last time," Ransom says.

McCain's finish in New Hampshire will doubtless give him some momentum in South Carolina, which experts say the Arizona senator must win if his campaign is to survive through March.

"He has to have substantial momentum," says Thomas Patterson, Bradlee professor of press and politics at the Kennedy School of Government. "He has to get people thinking, 'Oh, there's another candidate [besides Bush].'"

But despite McCain's strong showing in New Hampshire, Robert H. Becker, director of Clemson's Strom Thurmond Institute of Government and Public Affairs, believes there is little that will keep rival Bush from winning the state.

"Bush begins the South Carolina campaign with the endorsement of most state party leaders," Becker says.

"He is seen as a nice boy from a good family, so he will really have to screw up to lose ground," Becker says.

Like New Hampshire, in South Carolina all registered voters may vote in either the Democratic or the Republican primary.

Since the Democrats will hold a caucus on March 9 in South Carolina, analysts expect voters to show more of an interest in the Republican race.

"The wild card, then, is to project the extent of crossover Democrats and Independents likely to participate in the Republican primary," Becker says. "A good McCain showing in New Hampshire may increase his market share among this group of voters," he says.

McCain, who was a POW in the Vietnam War, also looks to benefit from the large poplulation of veterans in South Carolina, where over 400,000 call the state home.

"The state voters identify strong defense and veterans issues as important," Becker says.

South Carolina serves as the second half of the Republican primary cycle. Arizona and Michigan will hold their primaries on Feb. 22, followed by "Super Tuesday," on March 7, when 12 states hold their electoral contests.

By the end of that night, more than 50 percent of the available delegates will have been allotted.

March 7 will also be the day of the first Democratic primaries after New Hampshire, leaving Gore and Bradley with an entire month to prepare for the day's 15 primaries--including the delegate-rich states of California and New York.

While Bradley ran a close race in New Hampshire, Gore holds a commanding lead across the rest of the nation, with nearly a two to one margin in most states.

There are few signs of Bradley closing the gap in time for Super Tuesday, even if momentum from his close second-place finish in New Hampshire creates better exposure for his candidacy.

Experts say Bradley is not likely to back away from the challenge ahead of him though. In recent days, he has made more direct challenges to his rival by questioning his honesty and record on issues such as abortion--Gore at one point opposed Medicaid funding for the procedure--and campaign fundraising.

With its whirlwind of concurrent primaries, March 7 is also the date on which superior fundraising and campaign organization will start to make a true difference.

The beginning of the primary cycle may signify the end for most candidates, as more than 70 percent of Democratic delegates will be chosen by the third week of March. By that time, only the candidates who are able to sustain their campaigns and continually gain voter support will be able to remain as viable candidates, leaving the stage set for November.