Professors Assess North Korean Provocations

In light of recent provocations from North Korean leaders, Harvard professors and students said that although such behavior from the nation is a common occurrence, the new round of rhetoric should be viewed with caution.

On Tuesday, North Korea announced that it would revive a long-dormant nuclear reactor and ramp up production of atomic weapons material after several weeks of provocative rhetoric and actions against South Korea and its allies.

“It’s still not clear why North Korea has stepped up their threats at this time, but we do know that threats of this kind are not rare,” said William H. Overholt, senior research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation.

Yet experts noted that several aspects of the new round of threats deserve special attention.

“It might be that the new, young leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, is trying to establish himself as macho, military leader first in order to provide political covers for economic reforms,” Overholt said.

If Kim backs away from his rhetoric now, Overholt said, he will lose all credibility.

“Thus, we shouldn’t rule out the possibility that he’s going to do something dangerous because his credibility and his regime are on the line,” Overholt said.

He added that a need for fundraising, diplomatic recognition, and security assurance could be additional motivating factors.

According to professor Avram A. Agov, who teaches the course Korean History 113: “North Korea in Regional and Global Context,” the problem can be traced to the unfinished Korean War, which left both sides with an unsettled peace.

“North Korea is engaging in this manner to gain recognition because it gives them a security,” Agov said.

“We should never underestimate the seriousness and the tension in the Korean Peninsula,” he added.

Overholt called for joint U.S.-China diplomatic cooperation to bring stability to the Korean peninsula.

“With its desperate economy and overshadowed military, addressing the nuclear issue without addressing the failed state issue is a hopeless strategy,” Overholt said.

“The more isolated they are, the more unpredictable they become,” Agov said about the nation. “Through cross-recognition and engagement policies, we can strive for nonproliferation of nuclear arms in North Korea.”

Ji Woong Jang ’16, who is from South Korea, described the constant fear of living in Korea peninsula and advocated for maintaining stability.

“Living in South Korea, there’s always a chance of a North Korea attack. Although an attack may not be imminent, I’m concerned for my family there,” Jang said. “Unless we offer them a deal to redevelop their economy and address their dire needs, North Korea won’t abandon its nuclear program, and we will always live with a sense of insecurity.”