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It is a great pleasure for me to participate in this meeting of the Urban League. Your organization, more than any other, has labored to bring the Negro to economic equality. Today your efforts are meeting a more sympathetic response from American business than before. Attitudes are changing rapidly. The white collar and the managerial ranks of our large enterprises at las tare opening up. The demand for qualified Negroes all of a sudden exceeds the number you are able to find. And Whitney Young's radical call of just two years ago, asking American business not just to be an equal opportunity employer, but to actively recruit and develop Negro applicants, has come to be widely accepted. The recent research report of The National Industrial Conference Board on Negro Employment, containing 35 company case studies, shows that companies can make progress if they wish to make employment available to Negroes, and many companies at last have the wish to open their doors to opportunity.
I am an economist. I cannot advise the Urban League how to enlist greater employer cooperation or how to speed the training of Negroes for better jobs. Instead, at this point of break-through in job opuportunities let me give you an economist's perspective, some qutantitative indication of the task to be met before economic equality can be a reality.
Recent Economic Progress
After eight years of excessive unemployment for the nation as a whole, the economy has once again achieved a state of general prosperity. The national unemployment rate has been at 4% or less every month this year and unemployment is very likely to fall further in the coming months. Negro unemployment rates continue to move parallel to the national rates, but at twice the level. While national unemployment fell from 6.7 percent in 1961 to 3.8 percent in the first five months of this year, the Negro unemployment rate fell from 12.5 percent to 7.2 percent.
The unemployment rates of particular categories of Negro workers also moved parellel to the corresponding categories of all workers. The unemployment rate for adult Negro men fell from 11.7 percent to less than 5 percent, paralleling the national decline of 5.7 percent to 2.5 percent. Only the rate for teenagers does not parallel the white experience. It hardly fell in the five year interval and remains close to 25 percent. The white teenage rate did fall somewhat, but still remains high, abou t12 percent. The reason for these dispartities has not yet been fully identified. The great increase in numbers is certainly one factor. In June of this year, almost 2 million more teenagers were working than three years earlier, including an extra 163,000 Negro teenagers. And the continued heavy migration of Negroes from rural to urban areas converts the disguised unemployment of low productivity agricultural labor into the open unemployment of the city.
The structuralist theories which maintained that general prosperity would do little good for many categories of workers because they were unfit to hold jobs in the rapidly advancing technology, can now be dismissed, at least in their extreme forms. Every category of unemployment has responded to prosperity and will continue to do so. But now that that battle has been won and the general slack in the economy virtually eliminated, it becomes even more urgent to look more closely at the unemployment which remains even in good times. So let me talk today not about the common economic theme of the benefits of general prosperity, but rather about the longer term issues of overcoming the barriers to full economic equality.
Full Economic Equality
The ultimate economic goal for Negroes is full equality. From the point of view of employment I interpret this to mean that Negro workers are represented close to proportionately in the major occupations and professions. Of course, it does not require that Negroes represent exactly the same percentage in every type of profession and every skill; no such uniformity is found among other groups in American society, and differences will inevitably develop because of the uneven geographic distribution of the Negro labor force, and different degrees of interest in various kinds of work. But in terms of broadly defined occupational categories, the sort on which our national employment statistics are organized, a reosonable uniformity is a condition of full equality.
This is a very ambitious goal, and one which will surely not be reached in our lifetime. But it can provide a useful target, as a measure of the gap between Negro aspiration and achievement, of the task remaining to be done.
Let me therefore give you the results of a statistical exercise which reveals these tagrets for true Negro economic equality. (I use Negro and nonwhite interchangeably in this discussion. The figures are for all nonwhites; Negroes are over 4/5 of all nonwhites, and the figures are representative for them.)
Let us begin by looking at the present situation (see Table 1).
TABLE 1 Source: Joe L. Russell, "Changing Patterns in Employment of Nonwhite Workers," Monthly Labor Review, May, 1966. The immense over-representation of Negroes in the unskilled and service categories is of course well known. Although Negroes constituted only 10.7 percent of total unemployment in 1965, they are 26.3 percent of all service workers, 43.6 percent of all private household workers and 25.6 percent of all laborers. On the other hand they are dramatically under-represented in the more attractive occupations. They are only 5.9 percent of all professional and technical workers, 2.8 percent of managers and proprietors, 3.1 percent of all sales people, 5.7 percent of all clerical workers, and 5.6 percent of all skilled craftsmen. While these figures are a distburbing measure of the extent of economic inequality, they are a considerable improvement over just seven years ago. Comparing 1965 with 1958, the percentage * of non-white professional and technical workers is up from 3.8 percent to 5.9 percent, * of clerical workers from 4.3 to 5.7 percent, * of sales people from 2.1 to 3.1 percent, * of craftsmen from 4.5 to 5.6 percent. Suppose that the rate of progress that Negro workers experienced from 1958 to 1965 continues for another generation, to 1985. The Department of Labor has made projections to 1975 and I have extrapolated these figures forward another decade (see Table 2). TABLE 2 *Assumes that the nonwhite proportion of employment in each group will increase or decrease at the same rate as in Labor Department Projection 1965-75 (see Joe L. Russell, "Changing Patterns in Employment of Nonwhite Workers," Monthly Labor Review, May, 1966). By 1958, when total Negro employment will be up to 12 percent of the total because of greater nonwhite population growth, Negroes will have * 1.06 percent of all professional and technical jobs, * 8.4 percent of all clerical jobs, * 6.0 percent of all sales jobs, and * 8.8 percent of all skilled craftsmen jobs. But Negroes will still be * 23.7 percent of all laborers, * 38.4 percent of all private household workers, and * 24.6 percent of all farm laborers. For other attractive job categories, the present rate of progress would leave Negroes very far from equality. By 1985, only 3.8 percent of all managers and proprietors would be nonwhite. That is just 420,000 people, compared to an equality target figure of 1.33 million. There would be * 410,000 sales people compared to a target of 830,000 * 1.20 million craftsmen compared to a target of 1.63 million * 1.51 million clerical workers, compared to a target of 2.16 million. At the other end of the scale, there would still be * 850,000 laborers, instead of a target of 530,000, and * 3.7 million service workers, compared to a target rate of 1.88 million. These figurse are very crude, of course. The categories are extremely broad. Within each category, Negroes, on the average, have worse jobs at lower rates of pay. But even at this very gross level, many of the essential problems emerge clearly. Human Investment for Economic Equality Can the recent rate of progress be sustained for the next twenty years? And could it be accelerated to move Negroes more quickly toward economic equality? Doors are opening. But is the rate of investment in human resources sufficient to equip Negroes for the better jobs? Again, a few gross figures to outline the problem and show what remains to be done. The typical professional and technical job is held by a college graduate see Table 3). A high school diploma is a prerequisite for the typical managerial, clerical and sales job, and for the skilled craftsman. By 1985, semiskilled jobs and service jobs will also be held typically by high school graduates. TABLE 3 Source: For 1965 data, Manpower Report of the President, March, 1966. 1985 figures are very conservative projections of the trends of the last 18 years. To fully equip Negroes to compete for the jobs they would reach with continued present progress, 68.0 percent of all Negroes should be high school graduates by 1985; 14.7 percent should be college graduates. (see Table 4). To equip Negroes for full economic equality, 74.9 percent should be high school graduates, 16.7 percent college graduates. To be sure, these figures assume that every Negro must have the median education for his job. Some will be able to hold the better jobs without the appropriate diploma. But the education of whites is increasing rapidly as well, and will not fall far short of the standards underlying the above figures so the competition will be keen. TABLE 4 The educational achievements of our Negro population are rising rapidly (see Table 5). In 1952, only 17 percent of nonwhites had a complete high school education. By 1965, 38 percent had completed high school, and among the current young people, slightly more than half now finish high school. The number of college graduates is also rising rapidly. Among whites, the gains are less dramatic, so there has been a catchup in Negro educational achievement. TABLE 5 *Data for Nonwhite population, age 20 to 24, March, 1964. However, when the current performance is compared to the educaation that would fully equip Negroes for the job world of 1985, the gap is very great indeed. To continue the present rated progress following the Department of Labor projections, there should be 1.85 million Negro college graduates by 1985. Today there are about 550,000 Negro college graduates in the labor force. The current rate of Negro college attendance will not bring us close to the goal. About 15 percent go to college, less than half of the rate for whites. A very major step-up in college attendance and completion is needed if Negroes are to continue their fine recent rate of progress in professional and technical jobs. Some of the present progress is based on the elimination of Negro underemployment, of upgrading educated Negroes into the kinds of jobs for which they were educated. This source of progress will gradually disappear. Therefore, to maintain the present rate of progress with professional and technical jobs, the proportion of Negro college graduates must rise even more rapidly in the future than in the recent past. From a social point of view, the rate of high school completion is more worrisome. Even today, almost half of all young Negroes enter the job market without a high school diploma. By 1985 these youngsters will be about 40 years old, with half their working life ahead of them. Mighty few of these individuals are on any path toward equality. The economy will adapt to the labor supply, and if an adundant supply of uneducated Negroes is still available by 1985, there will be unskilled, badly paid, low productivity jobs for many of them. Their unemployment will be more frequent and of longer duration. This tragically low rate of completion of high school is the greatest single obstacle on the road to economic equality. In the past, the return on education was sharply lower for Negroes than for whites, because of discrimination and other factors. For example, in 1949, a white high school graduate in the South could expect to earn a lifetime income of $6,250 great er than a drop-out. A nonwhite could expect only $1,820. With a lower return, greater pressure to begin to work to contribute to low family income, and cultural deprivation, it was no wonder that Negro youths generally quit school. But the situation is changing. Job discrimination is diminishing, and the value of a high school education will be rising in our advancing technology. As an economist it would be rash for me to recommend to you the specific policy measures that follow from my analysis. The proper goals of policy for economic equality are clear: the number of young Negroes completing high school and completing college must be increased very substantially. The quality of the education they receive must be made equal to the quality of education of whites. And more specific vocational skills must be made available, whether through apprenticeship programs, vocational schools, Now is the time fora cational schools, manpower training policies or on-the-job experience. These programs of human investment will require immense resources from all levels of government, from employers, and not least from the Negro families themselves. In addition, the gates of opportunity must be opened all the way. Both companies and unions should heed Whitney Young's call to actively seek out Negro job candidates. In the case of the white collar job ladder, equality in education and employer cooperation are the key elements. But in the case of the equally important blue collar job ladder, it is the union movement which must carry much of the responsibility. Given the large number of Negro blue collar workers, this is a particularly important route of Negro economic development. Without attempting to develop specifics, let me touch on just a few areas in the education field. What steps could be taken to substantially increase the percentage of Negrose who complete high school? First, we have learned from experimental studies that school dropouts cannot be prevented in large number in the last year or two before the drop-out. The act of quitting is only the final step of a long drama of failure on the part of the school system to devise a meaningful and valuable curriculum for the student. In the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, the Federal Government has forged a mighty weapon in this cause. The resources it makes available to the schools which educate the children of the poor--including the potentially massive aid to the Southern schools which still educate half of all Negro children, as well as its aid to urban slum schools--should, if effectively employed, cut the drop-out rate. We must assure that these resources are really used effectively, and do not merely become a substitute for local effort, or simply vanish in higher costs When Federal budget resources again become available in greater abundance, expansion of this Act particularly of its Title I should have top priority. Special grants based on performance should be set up which reward these school districts which demonstrate by objectively measurable criteria that they are doing an outstanding job in helping the children of the poor. Such criteria migiht include the improvement in the percentage of poor children who complete high school; their improvement in achievement tests; and their vigor and success in achieving meaningful integration for racial balance. The American system of higher education must also respond to the needs of our Negro population and its progress for economic equality. Although there is very little discrimination in the admission of Negroes in our outstanding universities and colleges today, there are still mighty few Negroes in evidence on many of our finest campuses. The channels of communication are weak. Very few Negroes apply. So long as a large part of all Negroes attend inferior schools, they cannot hold their own in the objective college entrance examination. And of course, lower Negro incomes mean that fewer Negro families can afford the heavy expense of higher education. Our colleges and universities should step up their active search for Negro applicants. Much of the responsibility for sufficient education inevitably falls on the families of the Negro children. After all, it was through education nthat other minorities escaped mass poverty. Parental encouragement and help are of the essence in making children develep their potential. To be sure, one must be careful not to draw unwarranted analogies between the history of other minorities and the present plight of Negroes. But here is one analogy that is inescapable: only massive human investment in education can make economic equality possible
Source: Joe L. Russell, "Changing Patterns in Employment of Nonwhite Workers," Monthly Labor Review, May, 1966.
The immense over-representation of Negroes in the unskilled and service categories is of course well known. Although Negroes constituted only 10.7 percent of total unemployment in 1965, they are 26.3 percent of all service workers, 43.6 percent of all private household workers and 25.6 percent of all laborers. On the other hand they are dramatically under-represented in the more attractive occupations. They are only 5.9 percent of all professional and technical workers, 2.8 percent of managers and proprietors, 3.1 percent of all sales people, 5.7 percent of all clerical workers, and 5.6 percent of all skilled craftsmen.
While these figures are a distburbing measure of the extent of economic inequality, they are a considerable improvement over just seven years ago. Comparing 1965 with 1958, the percentage
* of non-white professional and technical workers is up from 3.8 percent to 5.9 percent,
* of clerical workers from 4.3 to 5.7 percent,
* of sales people from 2.1 to 3.1 percent,
* of craftsmen from 4.5 to 5.6 percent.
Suppose that the rate of progress that Negro workers experienced from 1958 to 1965 continues for another generation, to 1985. The Department of Labor has made projections to 1975 and I have extrapolated these figures forward another decade (see Table 2).
TABLE 2 *Assumes that the nonwhite proportion of employment in each group will increase or decrease at the same rate as in Labor Department Projection 1965-75 (see Joe L. Russell, "Changing Patterns in Employment of Nonwhite Workers," Monthly Labor Review, May, 1966). By 1958, when total Negro employment will be up to 12 percent of the total because of greater nonwhite population growth, Negroes will have * 1.06 percent of all professional and technical jobs, * 8.4 percent of all clerical jobs, * 6.0 percent of all sales jobs, and * 8.8 percent of all skilled craftsmen jobs. But Negroes will still be * 23.7 percent of all laborers, * 38.4 percent of all private household workers, and * 24.6 percent of all farm laborers. For other attractive job categories, the present rate of progress would leave Negroes very far from equality. By 1985, only 3.8 percent of all managers and proprietors would be nonwhite. That is just 420,000 people, compared to an equality target figure of 1.33 million. There would be * 410,000 sales people compared to a target of 830,000 * 1.20 million craftsmen compared to a target of 1.63 million * 1.51 million clerical workers, compared to a target of 2.16 million. At the other end of the scale, there would still be * 850,000 laborers, instead of a target of 530,000, and * 3.7 million service workers, compared to a target rate of 1.88 million. These figurse are very crude, of course. The categories are extremely broad. Within each category, Negroes, on the average, have worse jobs at lower rates of pay. But even at this very gross level, many of the essential problems emerge clearly. Human Investment for Economic Equality Can the recent rate of progress be sustained for the next twenty years? And could it be accelerated to move Negroes more quickly toward economic equality? Doors are opening. But is the rate of investment in human resources sufficient to equip Negroes for the better jobs? Again, a few gross figures to outline the problem and show what remains to be done. The typical professional and technical job is held by a college graduate see Table 3). A high school diploma is a prerequisite for the typical managerial, clerical and sales job, and for the skilled craftsman. By 1985, semiskilled jobs and service jobs will also be held typically by high school graduates. TABLE 3 Source: For 1965 data, Manpower Report of the President, March, 1966. 1985 figures are very conservative projections of the trends of the last 18 years. To fully equip Negroes to compete for the jobs they would reach with continued present progress, 68.0 percent of all Negroes should be high school graduates by 1985; 14.7 percent should be college graduates. (see Table 4). To equip Negroes for full economic equality, 74.9 percent should be high school graduates, 16.7 percent college graduates. To be sure, these figures assume that every Negro must have the median education for his job. Some will be able to hold the better jobs without the appropriate diploma. But the education of whites is increasing rapidly as well, and will not fall far short of the standards underlying the above figures so the competition will be keen. TABLE 4 The educational achievements of our Negro population are rising rapidly (see Table 5). In 1952, only 17 percent of nonwhites had a complete high school education. By 1965, 38 percent had completed high school, and among the current young people, slightly more than half now finish high school. The number of college graduates is also rising rapidly. Among whites, the gains are less dramatic, so there has been a catchup in Negro educational achievement. TABLE 5 *Data for Nonwhite population, age 20 to 24, March, 1964. However, when the current performance is compared to the educaation that would fully equip Negroes for the job world of 1985, the gap is very great indeed. To continue the present rated progress following the Department of Labor projections, there should be 1.85 million Negro college graduates by 1985. Today there are about 550,000 Negro college graduates in the labor force. The current rate of Negro college attendance will not bring us close to the goal. About 15 percent go to college, less than half of the rate for whites. A very major step-up in college attendance and completion is needed if Negroes are to continue their fine recent rate of progress in professional and technical jobs. Some of the present progress is based on the elimination of Negro underemployment, of upgrading educated Negroes into the kinds of jobs for which they were educated. This source of progress will gradually disappear. Therefore, to maintain the present rate of progress with professional and technical jobs, the proportion of Negro college graduates must rise even more rapidly in the future than in the recent past. From a social point of view, the rate of high school completion is more worrisome. Even today, almost half of all young Negroes enter the job market without a high school diploma. By 1985 these youngsters will be about 40 years old, with half their working life ahead of them. Mighty few of these individuals are on any path toward equality. The economy will adapt to the labor supply, and if an adundant supply of uneducated Negroes is still available by 1985, there will be unskilled, badly paid, low productivity jobs for many of them. Their unemployment will be more frequent and of longer duration. This tragically low rate of completion of high school is the greatest single obstacle on the road to economic equality. In the past, the return on education was sharply lower for Negroes than for whites, because of discrimination and other factors. For example, in 1949, a white high school graduate in the South could expect to earn a lifetime income of $6,250 great er than a drop-out. A nonwhite could expect only $1,820. With a lower return, greater pressure to begin to work to contribute to low family income, and cultural deprivation, it was no wonder that Negro youths generally quit school. But the situation is changing. Job discrimination is diminishing, and the value of a high school education will be rising in our advancing technology. As an economist it would be rash for me to recommend to you the specific policy measures that follow from my analysis. The proper goals of policy for economic equality are clear: the number of young Negroes completing high school and completing college must be increased very substantially. The quality of the education they receive must be made equal to the quality of education of whites. And more specific vocational skills must be made available, whether through apprenticeship programs, vocational schools, Now is the time fora cational schools, manpower training policies or on-the-job experience. These programs of human investment will require immense resources from all levels of government, from employers, and not least from the Negro families themselves. In addition, the gates of opportunity must be opened all the way. Both companies and unions should heed Whitney Young's call to actively seek out Negro job candidates. In the case of the white collar job ladder, equality in education and employer cooperation are the key elements. But in the case of the equally important blue collar job ladder, it is the union movement which must carry much of the responsibility. Given the large number of Negro blue collar workers, this is a particularly important route of Negro economic development. Without attempting to develop specifics, let me touch on just a few areas in the education field. What steps could be taken to substantially increase the percentage of Negrose who complete high school? First, we have learned from experimental studies that school dropouts cannot be prevented in large number in the last year or two before the drop-out. The act of quitting is only the final step of a long drama of failure on the part of the school system to devise a meaningful and valuable curriculum for the student. In the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, the Federal Government has forged a mighty weapon in this cause. The resources it makes available to the schools which educate the children of the poor--including the potentially massive aid to the Southern schools which still educate half of all Negro children, as well as its aid to urban slum schools--should, if effectively employed, cut the drop-out rate. We must assure that these resources are really used effectively, and do not merely become a substitute for local effort, or simply vanish in higher costs When Federal budget resources again become available in greater abundance, expansion of this Act particularly of its Title I should have top priority. Special grants based on performance should be set up which reward these school districts which demonstrate by objectively measurable criteria that they are doing an outstanding job in helping the children of the poor. Such criteria migiht include the improvement in the percentage of poor children who complete high school; their improvement in achievement tests; and their vigor and success in achieving meaningful integration for racial balance. The American system of higher education must also respond to the needs of our Negro population and its progress for economic equality. Although there is very little discrimination in the admission of Negroes in our outstanding universities and colleges today, there are still mighty few Negroes in evidence on many of our finest campuses. The channels of communication are weak. Very few Negroes apply. So long as a large part of all Negroes attend inferior schools, they cannot hold their own in the objective college entrance examination. And of course, lower Negro incomes mean that fewer Negro families can afford the heavy expense of higher education. Our colleges and universities should step up their active search for Negro applicants. Much of the responsibility for sufficient education inevitably falls on the families of the Negro children. After all, it was through education nthat other minorities escaped mass poverty. Parental encouragement and help are of the essence in making children develep their potential. To be sure, one must be careful not to draw unwarranted analogies between the history of other minorities and the present plight of Negroes. But here is one analogy that is inescapable: only massive human investment in education can make economic equality possible
*Assumes that the nonwhite proportion of employment in each group will increase or decrease at the same rate as in Labor Department Projection 1965-75 (see Joe L. Russell, "Changing Patterns in Employment of Nonwhite Workers," Monthly Labor Review, May, 1966).
By 1958, when total Negro employment will be up to 12 percent of the total because of greater nonwhite population growth, Negroes will have
* 1.06 percent of all professional and technical jobs,
* 8.4 percent of all clerical jobs,
* 6.0 percent of all sales jobs, and
* 8.8 percent of all skilled craftsmen jobs.
But Negroes will still be
* 23.7 percent of all laborers,
* 38.4 percent of all private household workers, and
* 24.6 percent of all farm laborers.
For other attractive job categories, the present rate of progress would leave Negroes very far from equality. By 1985, only 3.8 percent of all managers and proprietors would be nonwhite. That is just 420,000 people, compared to an equality target figure of 1.33 million.
There would be
* 410,000 sales people compared to a target of 830,000
* 1.20 million craftsmen compared to a target of 1.63 million
* 1.51 million clerical workers, compared to a target of 2.16 million.
At the other end of the scale, there would still be
* 850,000 laborers, instead of a target of 530,000, and
* 3.7 million service workers, compared to a target rate of 1.88 million.
These figurse are very crude, of course. The categories are extremely broad. Within each category, Negroes, on the average, have worse jobs at lower rates of pay. But even at this very gross level, many of the essential problems emerge clearly.
Human Investment for Economic Equality
Can the recent rate of progress be sustained for the next twenty years? And could it be accelerated to move Negroes more quickly toward economic equality?
Doors are opening. But is the rate of investment in human resources sufficient to equip Negroes for the better jobs? Again, a few gross figures to outline the problem and show what remains to be done.
The typical professional and technical job is held by a college graduate see Table 3). A high school diploma is a prerequisite for the typical managerial, clerical and sales job, and for the skilled craftsman. By 1985, semiskilled jobs and service jobs will also be held typically by high school graduates.
TABLE 3 Source: For 1965 data, Manpower Report of the President, March, 1966. 1985 figures are very conservative projections of the trends of the last 18 years. To fully equip Negroes to compete for the jobs they would reach with continued present progress, 68.0 percent of all Negroes should be high school graduates by 1985; 14.7 percent should be college graduates. (see Table 4). To equip Negroes for full economic equality, 74.9 percent should be high school graduates, 16.7 percent college graduates. To be sure, these figures assume that every Negro must have the median education for his job. Some will be able to hold the better jobs without the appropriate diploma. But the education of whites is increasing rapidly as well, and will not fall far short of the standards underlying the above figures so the competition will be keen. TABLE 4 The educational achievements of our Negro population are rising rapidly (see Table 5). In 1952, only 17 percent of nonwhites had a complete high school education. By 1965, 38 percent had completed high school, and among the current young people, slightly more than half now finish high school. The number of college graduates is also rising rapidly. Among whites, the gains are less dramatic, so there has been a catchup in Negro educational achievement. TABLE 5 *Data for Nonwhite population, age 20 to 24, March, 1964. However, when the current performance is compared to the educaation that would fully equip Negroes for the job world of 1985, the gap is very great indeed. To continue the present rated progress following the Department of Labor projections, there should be 1.85 million Negro college graduates by 1985. Today there are about 550,000 Negro college graduates in the labor force. The current rate of Negro college attendance will not bring us close to the goal. About 15 percent go to college, less than half of the rate for whites. A very major step-up in college attendance and completion is needed if Negroes are to continue their fine recent rate of progress in professional and technical jobs. Some of the present progress is based on the elimination of Negro underemployment, of upgrading educated Negroes into the kinds of jobs for which they were educated. This source of progress will gradually disappear. Therefore, to maintain the present rate of progress with professional and technical jobs, the proportion of Negro college graduates must rise even more rapidly in the future than in the recent past. From a social point of view, the rate of high school completion is more worrisome. Even today, almost half of all young Negroes enter the job market without a high school diploma. By 1985 these youngsters will be about 40 years old, with half their working life ahead of them. Mighty few of these individuals are on any path toward equality. The economy will adapt to the labor supply, and if an adundant supply of uneducated Negroes is still available by 1985, there will be unskilled, badly paid, low productivity jobs for many of them. Their unemployment will be more frequent and of longer duration. This tragically low rate of completion of high school is the greatest single obstacle on the road to economic equality. In the past, the return on education was sharply lower for Negroes than for whites, because of discrimination and other factors. For example, in 1949, a white high school graduate in the South could expect to earn a lifetime income of $6,250 great er than a drop-out. A nonwhite could expect only $1,820. With a lower return, greater pressure to begin to work to contribute to low family income, and cultural deprivation, it was no wonder that Negro youths generally quit school. But the situation is changing. Job discrimination is diminishing, and the value of a high school education will be rising in our advancing technology. As an economist it would be rash for me to recommend to you the specific policy measures that follow from my analysis. The proper goals of policy for economic equality are clear: the number of young Negroes completing high school and completing college must be increased very substantially. The quality of the education they receive must be made equal to the quality of education of whites. And more specific vocational skills must be made available, whether through apprenticeship programs, vocational schools, Now is the time fora cational schools, manpower training policies or on-the-job experience. These programs of human investment will require immense resources from all levels of government, from employers, and not least from the Negro families themselves. In addition, the gates of opportunity must be opened all the way. Both companies and unions should heed Whitney Young's call to actively seek out Negro job candidates. In the case of the white collar job ladder, equality in education and employer cooperation are the key elements. But in the case of the equally important blue collar job ladder, it is the union movement which must carry much of the responsibility. Given the large number of Negro blue collar workers, this is a particularly important route of Negro economic development. Without attempting to develop specifics, let me touch on just a few areas in the education field. What steps could be taken to substantially increase the percentage of Negrose who complete high school? First, we have learned from experimental studies that school dropouts cannot be prevented in large number in the last year or two before the drop-out. The act of quitting is only the final step of a long drama of failure on the part of the school system to devise a meaningful and valuable curriculum for the student. In the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, the Federal Government has forged a mighty weapon in this cause. The resources it makes available to the schools which educate the children of the poor--including the potentially massive aid to the Southern schools which still educate half of all Negro children, as well as its aid to urban slum schools--should, if effectively employed, cut the drop-out rate. We must assure that these resources are really used effectively, and do not merely become a substitute for local effort, or simply vanish in higher costs When Federal budget resources again become available in greater abundance, expansion of this Act particularly of its Title I should have top priority. Special grants based on performance should be set up which reward these school districts which demonstrate by objectively measurable criteria that they are doing an outstanding job in helping the children of the poor. Such criteria migiht include the improvement in the percentage of poor children who complete high school; their improvement in achievement tests; and their vigor and success in achieving meaningful integration for racial balance. The American system of higher education must also respond to the needs of our Negro population and its progress for economic equality. Although there is very little discrimination in the admission of Negroes in our outstanding universities and colleges today, there are still mighty few Negroes in evidence on many of our finest campuses. The channels of communication are weak. Very few Negroes apply. So long as a large part of all Negroes attend inferior schools, they cannot hold their own in the objective college entrance examination. And of course, lower Negro incomes mean that fewer Negro families can afford the heavy expense of higher education. Our colleges and universities should step up their active search for Negro applicants. Much of the responsibility for sufficient education inevitably falls on the families of the Negro children. After all, it was through education nthat other minorities escaped mass poverty. Parental encouragement and help are of the essence in making children develep their potential. To be sure, one must be careful not to draw unwarranted analogies between the history of other minorities and the present plight of Negroes. But here is one analogy that is inescapable: only massive human investment in education can make economic equality possible
Source: For 1965 data, Manpower Report of the President, March, 1966. 1985 figures are very conservative projections of the trends of the last 18 years.
To fully equip Negroes to compete for the jobs they would reach with continued present progress, 68.0 percent of all Negroes should be high school graduates by 1985; 14.7 percent should be college graduates. (see Table 4). To equip Negroes for full economic equality, 74.9 percent should be high school graduates, 16.7 percent college graduates. To be sure, these figures assume that every Negro must have the median education for his job. Some will be able to hold the better jobs without the appropriate diploma. But the education of whites is increasing rapidly as well, and will not fall far short of the standards underlying the above figures so the competition will be keen.
TABLE 4 The educational achievements of our Negro population are rising rapidly (see Table 5). In 1952, only 17 percent of nonwhites had a complete high school education. By 1965, 38 percent had completed high school, and among the current young people, slightly more than half now finish high school. The number of college graduates is also rising rapidly. Among whites, the gains are less dramatic, so there has been a catchup in Negro educational achievement. TABLE 5 *Data for Nonwhite population, age 20 to 24, March, 1964. However, when the current performance is compared to the educaation that would fully equip Negroes for the job world of 1985, the gap is very great indeed. To continue the present rated progress following the Department of Labor projections, there should be 1.85 million Negro college graduates by 1985. Today there are about 550,000 Negro college graduates in the labor force. The current rate of Negro college attendance will not bring us close to the goal. About 15 percent go to college, less than half of the rate for whites. A very major step-up in college attendance and completion is needed if Negroes are to continue their fine recent rate of progress in professional and technical jobs. Some of the present progress is based on the elimination of Negro underemployment, of upgrading educated Negroes into the kinds of jobs for which they were educated. This source of progress will gradually disappear. Therefore, to maintain the present rate of progress with professional and technical jobs, the proportion of Negro college graduates must rise even more rapidly in the future than in the recent past. From a social point of view, the rate of high school completion is more worrisome. Even today, almost half of all young Negroes enter the job market without a high school diploma. By 1985 these youngsters will be about 40 years old, with half their working life ahead of them. Mighty few of these individuals are on any path toward equality. The economy will adapt to the labor supply, and if an adundant supply of uneducated Negroes is still available by 1985, there will be unskilled, badly paid, low productivity jobs for many of them. Their unemployment will be more frequent and of longer duration. This tragically low rate of completion of high school is the greatest single obstacle on the road to economic equality. In the past, the return on education was sharply lower for Negroes than for whites, because of discrimination and other factors. For example, in 1949, a white high school graduate in the South could expect to earn a lifetime income of $6,250 great er than a drop-out. A nonwhite could expect only $1,820. With a lower return, greater pressure to begin to work to contribute to low family income, and cultural deprivation, it was no wonder that Negro youths generally quit school. But the situation is changing. Job discrimination is diminishing, and the value of a high school education will be rising in our advancing technology. As an economist it would be rash for me to recommend to you the specific policy measures that follow from my analysis. The proper goals of policy for economic equality are clear: the number of young Negroes completing high school and completing college must be increased very substantially. The quality of the education they receive must be made equal to the quality of education of whites. And more specific vocational skills must be made available, whether through apprenticeship programs, vocational schools, Now is the time fora cational schools, manpower training policies or on-the-job experience. These programs of human investment will require immense resources from all levels of government, from employers, and not least from the Negro families themselves. In addition, the gates of opportunity must be opened all the way. Both companies and unions should heed Whitney Young's call to actively seek out Negro job candidates. In the case of the white collar job ladder, equality in education and employer cooperation are the key elements. But in the case of the equally important blue collar job ladder, it is the union movement which must carry much of the responsibility. Given the large number of Negro blue collar workers, this is a particularly important route of Negro economic development. Without attempting to develop specifics, let me touch on just a few areas in the education field. What steps could be taken to substantially increase the percentage of Negrose who complete high school? First, we have learned from experimental studies that school dropouts cannot be prevented in large number in the last year or two before the drop-out. The act of quitting is only the final step of a long drama of failure on the part of the school system to devise a meaningful and valuable curriculum for the student. In the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, the Federal Government has forged a mighty weapon in this cause. The resources it makes available to the schools which educate the children of the poor--including the potentially massive aid to the Southern schools which still educate half of all Negro children, as well as its aid to urban slum schools--should, if effectively employed, cut the drop-out rate. We must assure that these resources are really used effectively, and do not merely become a substitute for local effort, or simply vanish in higher costs When Federal budget resources again become available in greater abundance, expansion of this Act particularly of its Title I should have top priority. Special grants based on performance should be set up which reward these school districts which demonstrate by objectively measurable criteria that they are doing an outstanding job in helping the children of the poor. Such criteria migiht include the improvement in the percentage of poor children who complete high school; their improvement in achievement tests; and their vigor and success in achieving meaningful integration for racial balance. The American system of higher education must also respond to the needs of our Negro population and its progress for economic equality. Although there is very little discrimination in the admission of Negroes in our outstanding universities and colleges today, there are still mighty few Negroes in evidence on many of our finest campuses. The channels of communication are weak. Very few Negroes apply. So long as a large part of all Negroes attend inferior schools, they cannot hold their own in the objective college entrance examination. And of course, lower Negro incomes mean that fewer Negro families can afford the heavy expense of higher education. Our colleges and universities should step up their active search for Negro applicants. Much of the responsibility for sufficient education inevitably falls on the families of the Negro children. After all, it was through education nthat other minorities escaped mass poverty. Parental encouragement and help are of the essence in making children develep their potential. To be sure, one must be careful not to draw unwarranted analogies between the history of other minorities and the present plight of Negroes. But here is one analogy that is inescapable: only massive human investment in education can make economic equality possible
The educational achievements of our Negro population are rising rapidly (see Table 5). In 1952, only 17 percent of nonwhites had a complete high school education. By 1965, 38 percent had completed high school, and among the current young people, slightly more than half now finish high school. The number of college graduates is also rising rapidly. Among whites, the gains are less dramatic, so there has been a catchup in Negro educational achievement.
TABLE 5 *Data for Nonwhite population, age 20 to 24, March, 1964. However, when the current performance is compared to the educaation that would fully equip Negroes for the job world of 1985, the gap is very great indeed. To continue the present rated progress following the Department of Labor projections, there should be 1.85 million Negro college graduates by 1985. Today there are about 550,000 Negro college graduates in the labor force. The current rate of Negro college attendance will not bring us close to the goal. About 15 percent go to college, less than half of the rate for whites. A very major step-up in college attendance and completion is needed if Negroes are to continue their fine recent rate of progress in professional and technical jobs. Some of the present progress is based on the elimination of Negro underemployment, of upgrading educated Negroes into the kinds of jobs for which they were educated. This source of progress will gradually disappear. Therefore, to maintain the present rate of progress with professional and technical jobs, the proportion of Negro college graduates must rise even more rapidly in the future than in the recent past. From a social point of view, the rate of high school completion is more worrisome. Even today, almost half of all young Negroes enter the job market without a high school diploma. By 1985 these youngsters will be about 40 years old, with half their working life ahead of them. Mighty few of these individuals are on any path toward equality. The economy will adapt to the labor supply, and if an adundant supply of uneducated Negroes is still available by 1985, there will be unskilled, badly paid, low productivity jobs for many of them. Their unemployment will be more frequent and of longer duration. This tragically low rate of completion of high school is the greatest single obstacle on the road to economic equality. In the past, the return on education was sharply lower for Negroes than for whites, because of discrimination and other factors. For example, in 1949, a white high school graduate in the South could expect to earn a lifetime income of $6,250 great er than a drop-out. A nonwhite could expect only $1,820. With a lower return, greater pressure to begin to work to contribute to low family income, and cultural deprivation, it was no wonder that Negro youths generally quit school. But the situation is changing. Job discrimination is diminishing, and the value of a high school education will be rising in our advancing technology. As an economist it would be rash for me to recommend to you the specific policy measures that follow from my analysis. The proper goals of policy for economic equality are clear: the number of young Negroes completing high school and completing college must be increased very substantially. The quality of the education they receive must be made equal to the quality of education of whites. And more specific vocational skills must be made available, whether through apprenticeship programs, vocational schools, Now is the time fora cational schools, manpower training policies or on-the-job experience. These programs of human investment will require immense resources from all levels of government, from employers, and not least from the Negro families themselves. In addition, the gates of opportunity must be opened all the way. Both companies and unions should heed Whitney Young's call to actively seek out Negro job candidates. In the case of the white collar job ladder, equality in education and employer cooperation are the key elements. But in the case of the equally important blue collar job ladder, it is the union movement which must carry much of the responsibility. Given the large number of Negro blue collar workers, this is a particularly important route of Negro economic development. Without attempting to develop specifics, let me touch on just a few areas in the education field. What steps could be taken to substantially increase the percentage of Negrose who complete high school? First, we have learned from experimental studies that school dropouts cannot be prevented in large number in the last year or two before the drop-out. The act of quitting is only the final step of a long drama of failure on the part of the school system to devise a meaningful and valuable curriculum for the student. In the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, the Federal Government has forged a mighty weapon in this cause. The resources it makes available to the schools which educate the children of the poor--including the potentially massive aid to the Southern schools which still educate half of all Negro children, as well as its aid to urban slum schools--should, if effectively employed, cut the drop-out rate. We must assure that these resources are really used effectively, and do not merely become a substitute for local effort, or simply vanish in higher costs When Federal budget resources again become available in greater abundance, expansion of this Act particularly of its Title I should have top priority. Special grants based on performance should be set up which reward these school districts which demonstrate by objectively measurable criteria that they are doing an outstanding job in helping the children of the poor. Such criteria migiht include the improvement in the percentage of poor children who complete high school; their improvement in achievement tests; and their vigor and success in achieving meaningful integration for racial balance. The American system of higher education must also respond to the needs of our Negro population and its progress for economic equality. Although there is very little discrimination in the admission of Negroes in our outstanding universities and colleges today, there are still mighty few Negroes in evidence on many of our finest campuses. The channels of communication are weak. Very few Negroes apply. So long as a large part of all Negroes attend inferior schools, they cannot hold their own in the objective college entrance examination. And of course, lower Negro incomes mean that fewer Negro families can afford the heavy expense of higher education. Our colleges and universities should step up their active search for Negro applicants. Much of the responsibility for sufficient education inevitably falls on the families of the Negro children. After all, it was through education nthat other minorities escaped mass poverty. Parental encouragement and help are of the essence in making children develep their potential. To be sure, one must be careful not to draw unwarranted analogies between the history of other minorities and the present plight of Negroes. But here is one analogy that is inescapable: only massive human investment in education can make economic equality possible
*Data for Nonwhite population, age 20 to 24, March, 1964.
However, when the current performance is compared to the educaation that would fully equip Negroes for the job world of 1985, the gap is very great indeed. To continue the present rated progress following the Department of Labor projections, there should be 1.85 million Negro college graduates by 1985. Today there are about 550,000 Negro college graduates in the labor force. The current rate of Negro college attendance will not bring us close to the goal. About 15 percent go to college, less than half of the rate for whites. A very major step-up in college attendance and completion is needed if Negroes are to continue their fine recent rate of progress in professional and technical jobs. Some of the present progress is based on the elimination of Negro underemployment, of upgrading educated Negroes into the kinds of jobs for which they were educated. This source of progress will gradually disappear. Therefore, to maintain the present rate of progress with professional and technical jobs, the proportion of Negro college graduates must rise even more rapidly in the future than in the recent past.
From a social point of view, the rate of high school completion is more worrisome. Even today, almost half of all young Negroes enter the job market without a high school diploma. By 1985 these youngsters will be about 40 years old, with half their working life ahead of them. Mighty few of these individuals are on any path toward equality. The economy will adapt to the labor supply, and if an adundant supply of uneducated Negroes is still available by 1985, there will be unskilled, badly paid, low productivity jobs for many of them. Their unemployment will be more frequent and of longer duration. This tragically low rate of completion of high school is the greatest single obstacle on the road to economic equality.
In the past, the return on education was sharply lower for Negroes than for whites, because of discrimination and other factors. For example, in 1949, a white high school graduate in the South could expect to earn a lifetime income of $6,250 great er than a drop-out. A nonwhite could expect only $1,820. With a lower return, greater pressure to begin to work to contribute to low family income, and cultural deprivation, it was no wonder that Negro youths generally quit school. But the situation is changing. Job discrimination is diminishing, and the value of a high school education will be rising in our advancing technology.
As an economist it would be rash for me to recommend to you the specific policy measures that follow from my analysis. The proper goals of policy for economic equality are clear: the number of young Negroes completing high school and completing college must be increased very substantially. The quality of the education they receive must be made equal to the quality of education of whites. And more specific vocational skills must be made available, whether through apprenticeship programs, vocational schools, Now is the time fora cational schools, manpower training policies or on-the-job experience. These programs of human investment will require immense resources from all levels of government, from employers, and not least from the Negro families themselves. In addition, the gates of opportunity must be opened all the way. Both companies and unions should heed Whitney Young's call to actively seek out Negro job candidates. In the case of the white collar job ladder, equality in education and employer cooperation are the key elements. But in the case of the equally important blue collar job ladder, it is the union movement which must carry much of the responsibility. Given the large number of Negro blue collar workers, this is a particularly important route of Negro economic development.
Without attempting to develop specifics, let me touch on just a few areas in the education field. What steps could be taken to substantially increase the percentage of Negrose who complete high school? First, we have learned from experimental studies that school dropouts cannot be prevented in large number in the last year or two before the drop-out. The act of quitting is only the final step of a long drama of failure on the part of the school system to devise a meaningful and valuable curriculum for the student. In the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, the Federal Government has forged a mighty weapon in this cause. The resources it makes available to the schools which educate the children of the poor--including the potentially massive aid to the Southern schools which still educate half of all Negro children, as well as its aid to urban slum schools--should, if effectively employed, cut the drop-out rate. We must assure that these resources are really used effectively, and do not merely become a substitute for local effort, or simply vanish in higher costs When Federal budget resources again become available in greater abundance, expansion of this Act particularly of its Title I should have top priority. Special grants based on performance should be set up which reward these school districts which demonstrate by objectively measurable criteria that they are doing an outstanding job in helping the children of the poor. Such criteria migiht include the improvement in the percentage of poor children who complete high school; their improvement in achievement tests; and their vigor and success in achieving meaningful integration for racial balance.
The American system of higher education must also respond to the needs of our Negro population and its progress for economic equality. Although there is very little discrimination in the admission of Negroes in our outstanding universities and colleges today, there are still mighty few Negroes in evidence on many of our finest campuses. The channels of communication are weak. Very few Negroes apply. So long as a large part of all Negroes attend inferior schools, they cannot hold their own in the objective college entrance examination. And of course, lower Negro incomes mean that fewer Negro families can afford the heavy expense of higher education. Our colleges and universities should step up their active search for Negro applicants.
Much of the responsibility for sufficient education inevitably falls on the families of the Negro children. After all, it was through education nthat other minorities escaped mass poverty. Parental encouragement and help are of the essence in making children develep their potential. To be sure, one must be careful not to draw unwarranted analogies between the history of other minorities and the present plight of Negroes. But here is one analogy that is inescapable: only massive human investment in education can make economic equality possible
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