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BASEBALL

Seeing Red and White

By Mike Bass

It's like ending a three-act play after one act. Like only reading the first 100 pages of a 300-page mystery novel. Stopping the baseball season on May 22 is like... leaving a baseball game in the third inning.

Whether or not the players strike, the 104th National League season will commence right on schedule early next week. And when it ends, one of the 12 teams will end up with a better record than the rest--even if they do it with 30 wins. Here's how it looks:

Just 18 months ago, Los Angeles won its second consecutive N.L. title, and the same starters are all back. Best rookie crop in baseball joins them. Up from Albuquerque come Mickey Hatcher (.371 batting average), speedster Rudy Law, Kelly (son of Duke) Snider (.304), Bobby Mitchell (.327) and Pedro Guerrero (.333). All in all, a team with few--if any--weaknesses which should win its third flag in four years.

Western Division: LOS ANGELES DODGERS--Classy teams bounce back. Several things happened at once to cause last season's fiasco, but you can bet your Linda Ronstadt Dodger jacket they won't happen again. Dave Goltz and Don Stanhouse are here to insure that even if Doug Rau wins one of six and Bob Welch five of 11 like last year, Burt Hooton won't have to carry the pitching staff alone.

CINCINNATI REDS--Everything came together for the Reds in '79, and though they're strong they are just not that talented. Unproven Ron Oester must take over for the departed Joe Morgan at second, and the fourth starter they amazingly did without last year still isn't there. They'll be good, L.A. better.

HOUSTON ASTROS--Yeah, two pitchers on the team combined for 536 strikeouts last year, but Terry Puhl led the Astros in home runs with eight. Nolan Ryan is a good (not great: 16-14 with baseball's hardest-hitting team last year) pitcher, but Houston got almost-perfect pitching in '79 and still didn't win. What they lacked--and still lack--is hitting. Joe Morgan, their only off-season acquisition other than Ryan, is a valuable ballplayer, but his bat can't carry a team. Third.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS--Lots of question marks. Will the pitching sparkle like in 1978 or collapse like last year? Can Willie McCovey (.249, 15 homers, 57 rbi's) make it one more year? Where is millionaire free-agent Rennie (.239) Stennett going to play, and why? Fourth and falling.

ATLANTA BRAVES--Don't laugh, but the Braves are an improving ballclub. In Bob Horner and Dale Murphy they have two of baseball's finest young hitters. Chris Chambliss (.290) is as solid as ever, and Gary Matthews (.304, 27, 90) is one of baseball's most underrated outfielders. The trick is finding people to play in-between, and a pitcher to help Phil Niekro. Fifth.

SAN DIEGO PADRES--At least they're new. Aurelio Rodriguez, Dave Cash, Rick Wise and John Curtis have come, and fifth place should go. Poor Dave Winfield. Last.

Eastern Division--ST. LOUIS CARDINALS--Strong at every position, me Cards should dethrone the world champion Pirates and win the East. MVP Keith Hernandez (.344) and vagabond Bobby Bonds (.275, 25, 85 with Cleveland) lead a solid--and often spectacular--squad. Catcher Ted Simmons (.283, 26, 87) is one of baseball's best, shortstop Gary Templeton (.314), who slapped out over 100 hits from both sides of the plate in '79, is a potent offensive weapon.

The pitching isn't as strong but will do. Greatly underrated Silvio Martinez (15-8, 3.27) and John Fulgham (10-6, 2.53) lead the starters, while the bullpen is packed with familiar names like Knowles, McEnaney and Littell. It'll be close, but St. Louis will finish first in the east.

MONTREAL EXPOS--Baseball's best team in September, Montreal has the horses to win it all. They are talented and deep, but the bet here is that the pitching is another year away. Lee, Rogers and Grimsley can't carry this team, and the kids aren't ready. Second.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES--Can Tim Foli ever hit .291 again? Last year something special happened to the Pirates. They took off, soared to uncharted heights and landed on a planet of paradise. Come home, boys--to third.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES--Still a solid team, but old and slow. The Phils are on the way down. Fourth.

CHICAGO CUBS--Dave Kingman has developed into a complete ballplayer in every respect but one--he can't pitch. Neither can anyone else on this team. Fifth.

NEW YORK METS--Can Fred Wilpon play third base? Hopeless. Last

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