PREDICTS CONTINUED ADVANCE IN BUSINESS

"According to all available indices, including indices of production, employment, and prices, the trough of a depression from which this country is just beginning to emerge was reached in the early summer of 1921," said Mr. F. Y. Presley of the Harvard Economic Service in an interview for the CRIMSON yesterday. "Since that time wholesale prices reflected by Bradstreet's price index have been advancing slowly without important interruption.

"Stocks have been advancing since August 7 while money rates have been declining. This situation in the money and security markets is invariably the forerunner of business improvement and our forecast for the remainder of the year 1922 is for substantial business improvement accompanied by rising wholesale prices.

"It is too early yet to make any appraisal of the extent of this present upward movement which began in February. The most important factor in the present situation is the money market. Those concerned with the future course of business conditions should watch the trend of commercial paper rates, for a perceptible stiffening is not only a signal of a pronounced decline in security prices, but also precedes by from five to ten months a recession in wholesale prices and a decrease in business, and industrial activity.

"The effect of the coal strike since April 1 has not materially affected business conditions, although it has been felt in the iron and steel market and coke prices have increased sharply. It is not within the scope of scientific economic research to forecast the probable duration of this contest, but a prolonged tie-up in coal-production would undoubtedly, have a serious effect on business improvement."