Dan-nie Baseball!: Derby Picks from Danny Boy

For all you middle-aged, grizzled chain-smokers from South Boston who care, the Kentucky Derby is tomorrow.

Featuring the highest hype-to-payoff ratio in sports, the 126th Run for the Roses will pack all its punch into two glorious minutes at Churchill Downs, cloaked by the affecting melodrama of a daytime soap, with a cast of characters to match. Here's a thumbnail sketch of this year's edition:

The Prima Donna: Hard to pronounce and harder to ignore, Fusaichi Pegasus comes with regal breeding, a hefty price tag, and the attitude of an impatient diva. Bought by the Japanese entrepreneur Fusao Sekiguchi for $4 million as a yearling, the prohibitive favorite enters the Derby on a four-race winning streak, including an overpowering four-length victory in the Wood Memorial April 15 at Aqueduct. Fusaichi Pegasus has been likened to Secretariat so often that the comparison has acquired the resonance of clich.

The "winged wonder" has done everything right on the oval, but hasn't looked quite content doing it. Both before and after the Wood, Fusaichi Pegasus misbehaved, balking before entering the starting gate and then bucking and snorting his way back to the paddock after crossing the wire. Last week, he looked disagreeable by refusing to run an early-morning workout at Churchill, then bucking and throwing his exercise rider before laying down on his rump in the middle of the track a few days later.

But racing's Dennis Rodman has his Phil Jackson. His trainer is the serene, refined Englishman Neil Drysdale, who indulges his prize colt and assures defectors that he's just "feeling his oats" when he acts out--which doesn't exactly reassure his backers, who will nonetheless be fighting to queue up for a 9-5 price on Derby day. If he fulfills expectations, Fusaichi Pegasus will become the first morning-line favorite to win the Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979.

The Enigma: Fusaichi Pegasus's stablemate, also trained by Drysdale, is War Chant, who is lightly raced but frighteningly strong. The grandson of Derby champ Northern Dancer, War Chant is 3-for-4 lifetime, with his most impressive win in the March 4 San Rafael Stakes. But while cruising down the home stretch, the impressionable youngster broke stride when he stopped to look at a sign on the inside rail, spooking his backers. War Chant gets blinkers tomorrow, and is equally capable of a misstep as he is of a money run. Although War Chant has never run outside California, he could complete a Drysdale exacta and validate his breeding.

The Working Girl: Although the Derby is an all-male affair this year, trainer Jenine Sahadi is attracting ink as she bids to become the first woman to train a winner in the race's history. Sahadi conditions the Irish-bred colt The Deputy, who should go off as the bettors' second choice and provide competition for Fusaichi Pegasus down the stretch. Since shipping across the Atlantic late last year, The Deputy has won three of four starts, including the Santa Anita Derby, the major California Derby prep, in which he handed second-best War Chant his first career loss. The Deputy's only loss in the U.S. came in the March 19 San Felipe Stakes, where he battled but couldn't catch the Pegasus.

The spotlight shone on Sahadi during the post position draw for the Santa Anita Derby, when a subsequently much-publicized feud broke out between her and Bob Baffert, who trains Derby hopeful Captain Steve. Baffert, the silver-haired and mean-mouthed bad guy of racing (of a fellow trainer who suffered from Bell's Palsy, Baffert once commented, "He talks like Mister Magoo"), slighted Sahadi when he asked jockey Chris McCarron, who rides The Deputy, "Who's training this horse, you or Jenine?" Sahadi laughed last when The Deputy pasted Captain Steve by six lengths, and quickly became the media darling to Baffert's villain.

The Old-Timer: 88 year-old Harold Rose, who bred, owns and trains hopeful Hal's Hope, recovered from a stroke last year and has gotten a wild ride he probably doesn't need from this colt. Hal's Hope is hot-and-cold--it took him three tries to break his maiden at Calder Race Course before he did it at six and one-half furlongs at a healthy 16-1 price. But the horse has two quality stakes wins in the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby. In last month's Blue Grass Stakes, Hal's Hope ran just off the pace for five furlongs before tiring badly and finishing last in the field of eight. Rose swears his horse is in tip-top physical condition, and his workouts have been short but sharp. Hal's Hope is the sentimental favorite in a sport where sentiment is rarely rewarded at the mutual window.

The Shadowy Foreigners: Dubai-based Godolphin Stables will ship two runners to Louisville--50-1 sleepers China Visit and Curule. Nobody knows much about the pair, except that both have won big-money races at hometown Nad al-Sheba racetrack. Godolphin's horses arrived late and only came out of quarantine on Tuesday, then had modest workouts at Churchill. Most handicappers have dismissed the mysterious men from the East, but China Visit's eye-catching win in the March 25 UAE Derby (where he returned $38 for a $2 ticket) has longshot-happy railbirds thinking of a triple-digit payout.

Twenty horses will bolt from the gate tomorrow with the panic of depositors at a Depression-era bank run, and the bumping and jostling that's sure to ensue could knock any of the favored contenders out of the money and produce a winner like last year's 30-1 Charismatic. So watch it for the drama--or if you're short on cash, hop the Blue Line to Suffolk Downs, where there's no shortage of opinions. But remember, soap operas don't often have predictable endings.