Experts: Peace Is Probable

The United States will probably be able to maintain peace in the former Yugoslavia, although the treaty may deteriorate after U.S. forces leave in a year, a panel of Harvard experts said in a discussion at the John F. Kennedy School of Government last night.

"I think this is a do-able situation and it's the right thing to do to be going in there," said Bernard E. Trainor, adjunct lecturer in public policy and director of the National Security Program at the Kennedy School.

The panel also included James Webb, a former U.S. secretary of the Navy and a fellow at the Kennedy School Institute of Politics in 1992; Robert D. Blackwill, lecturer in public policy at the Kennedy School; and Shirley Williams, public service professor of electoral politics at the Kennedy School.

The discussion was moderated by Graham T. Allison, Jr., Douglas Dillon professor of government and director of the Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School.

Blackwill and Williams both agreed with Trainor that it is the right time, morally and politically, for the United States to send troops to Bosnia.

"We've got to stop the war. We've got to stop the genocide that's going on," Williams said.

Webb, however, raised the question of the President's authority to send troops without congressional approval. He said the mission in Bosnia might tie up the limited number of U.S. troops in Europe.

"If the parties really want peace, they will find peace," Webb said, suggesting that peace-keeping might not be the best occupation for American soldiers in Europe.

But the panelists also said they were concerned Clinton's one year deadline would dump the peace-keeping responsibility on European nations after the U.S. pull-out.

"The notion that this blood lust can be suppressed in one year is ridiculous," Blackwill said. "There is zero hope that the warring factions can accept the benefits of peace in such a short time."

Trainor predicted there will be little resistance from the warring factions, but some casualties are likely to occur from vehicle accidents, mines and snipers. He said the casualties should not deter American involvement, however.

"The issue is less the casualties than the conviction by the American people that the casualties are worth taking," he said.

The panelists also discussed the legitimacy of American interests in the area and the importance of U.S. leadership in the treaty discussions.

"It is not only the realistic thing to do, it is the right thing to do," Trainor said

But the panelists also said they were concerned Clinton's one year deadline would dump the peace-keeping responsibility on European nations after the U.S. pull-out.

"The notion that this blood lust can be suppressed in one year is ridiculous," Blackwill said. "There is zero hope that the warring factions can accept the benefits of peace in such a short time."

Trainor predicted there will be little resistance from the warring factions, but some casualties are likely to occur from vehicle accidents, mines and snipers. He said the casualties should not deter American involvement, however.

"The issue is less the casualties than the conviction by the American people that the casualties are worth taking," he said.

The panelists also discussed the legitimacy of American interests in the area and the importance of U.S. leadership in the treaty discussions.

"It is not only the realistic thing to do, it is the right thing to do," Trainor said