Oct. 22, 2009
Last month, Ben Bernanke told the Brookings Institution that the recession “is very likely over.” Technically, he is correct: GDP will grow this quarter, and the International Monetary Fund projects a 1.5 percent increase next year. Yet unemployment reached 9.8 percent last month, a 25-year high, and will likely continue climbing. This is to be expected, as joblessness typically rises for nearly 18 months after GDP growth turns positive. Due to this recession’s severity, most economists expect unemployment to return to pre-recession levels in three to five years. As Bernanke acknowledges, it doesn’t feel like the end of a recession for many Americans.
Republicans have used this news to prematurely declare the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act a failure. This is intellectually dishonest, given that three-quarters of it has not yet been spent. According to the Council of Economic Advisors, even the fraction paid out so far added two to three percent to second-quarter GDP growth and created or saved hundreds of thousands of jobs (although the exact number is up for debate). Clearly, joblessness would be higher today without the stimulus.
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