Democratic Strategist David Plouffe Says Midterm Wins Don’t Guarantee 2028 Victory

David Plouffe, a former senior adviser to Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential campaign, said at a Wednesday Institute of Politics forum that Democrats’ sweeping midterm victories offer no guarantees for the 2028 presidential election.

Plouffe’s remarks came a day after Democrats made sweeping gains in Tuesday’s midterm elections — winning races in battleground states and flipping Senate seats and governorships in traditionally Republican states like Texas and Ohio. Plouffe said the Democratic Party’s “brand is still quite weak” despite those major wins.

“I would say this was a vote against Trump more than a vote for the Democratic Party,” he said.

Wednesday’s discussion was moderated by Jonathan Martin, a senior political columnist at Politico and a former IOP fellow. During the forum, Plouffe, who also served as campaign manager for Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential bid, stressed the importance of newly elected Democrats continuing to communicate with voters beyond election season.

“Whether you got elected to the House, Senate, Governor, County Council, you have to have day in and day out, both what you’re doing, what you’re trying to do, and communicating.” Plouffe said. “I’m trying to improve people’s lives.”

“If we don’t do that, we don’t deserve a good ’28,” he added.

Plouffe also addressed key issues and potential candidates for the 2028 presidential election. While he said much would depend on the candidates and the political climate at the time, he suggested that more states could be within Democrats’ reach in 2028 as a result of their success on Tuesday.

“If the economy is as bad as people perceive it, then as it is now, we could compete presidentially in Ohio, Iowa, Texas,” he said.

The two also discussed potential contenders in the 2028 presidential election, with Plouffe emphasizing that the race for the Democratic nomination remains “wide open.”

He listed Harris, Senator Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) among potential nominees, but said it was possible that none of them would run — leaving 2028 as “the most wide open Democratic Primary” in more than two decades.

“Both Trump and Obama in different ways lowered the barrier of entry to run for president,” Plouffe said. “You can kind of run from anywhere right now and mount a presidential campaign of some force if you’re compelling and exciting.”

Plouffe said Democrats’ ability to flip key states in 2028 would depend on both the presidential candidates on the ballot and how effectively the party builds on its midterm successes.

“So you know, a lot will depend on who the Republicans nominate,” he said. “If they nominate someone who seems not MAGA, I think that’s hard to do, then I think the President run should be highly competitive.”

Plouffe also touched on key issues facing voters in 2028, including growing uncertainty about AI among Americans and politicians alike.

“I’m told I may not have a job, my kids may not have a job, society ends and we may be extinct, and nobody’s doing anything about it,” he said. “Technology is going to come; the question is how do we deal with it?”

Despite those uncertainties, Plouffe said the midterms were a promising sign and expressed optimism about Democrats’ prospects in the next presidential election.

“Democrats just had a great night,” Plouffe said. “It’s possible–I wouldn’t say it’s likely–but quite possible: They could have a great 2028.”